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Today looks like a quiet session: the S&P 500 will close between 7,730 and 7,786
This is a forecast and it can be checked: tomorrow you will know whether we got it right. The model is right 60.04% of the time when it calls whether a day will be more turbulent than usual, against 51.09% for a coin flip, measured over 1051 sessions it never saw. Below, the running score and everything else.
01Today's call
Published before the open, checked at the close.
Historical frequency, not a forecast. We tried five different ways to predict direction and none of them work; the detail is in section 07.
Validated over 1051 out-of-sample sessions, walk-forward: each day is predicted training only on earlier ones, retraining every 21 sessions. It is right 60.04% of the time against 51.09% for a coin flip. Brier 0.23466 against 0.24988 with no model.
How to read a 43.7%
A 43.7% does not mean "no". It means that in four of every ten days like today, the market moves more than usual. If tomorrow turns out turbulent, the model did not fail: the 43.7% happened.
A probabilistic forecast can only be judged over many days, like a weather forecaster. If they say 30% rain and it rains, they were not wrong; they would be wrong if it rained half the time they said 30%. That is why we publish the running score, and why it is worth more than any promise.
The 120 variables it looks at today
Of the 139 computed, the model keeps the 120 most correlated with the target each month, chosen using past data only. These are today's, grouped by source.
asim_21 asim_63 atr14 caida_max21 caida_max252 caida_max63 cierre_rango cierre_rango_5 curt_21 dist_ma10 dist_ma100 dist_ma20 dist_ma200 dist_ma5 dist_ma50 diurno diurno_10 ma20_50 ma50_200 ma5_20 nocturno nocturno_10 pend_ma10 pend_ma20 pend_ma5 pend_ma50 pos_rango21 pos_rango252 pos_rango63 racha rango_vs_atr ret_10d ret_1d ret_21d ret_2d ret_3d ret_5d ret_63d rsi_14 rsi_2 rsi_5 sube_min21 sube_min63 verdes_21 verdes_5 vol_10d vol_5d vol_63d vol_de_vol vol_r_21_63 vol_r_5_21 vol_rel20 vol_rel60 vol_tend vol_x_ret z_precio20 z_precio60ad ad_21 ad_5 asim_transv correlacion_implicita dispersion dispersion_5 dispersion_z equipond_menos_sp_21d equipond_menos_sp_5d max_21 max_252 max_63 max_menos_min_63 min_21 min_252 min_63 sobre_ma20 sobre_ma200 sobre_ma50dia_mes es_diciembre es_enero es_jue es_lun es_mar es_mie es_vie fin_mes ini_mes mes vencimientovix vix_5d vix_ma20 vix_pct252 vix_vs_vol vix_z63 vvix vvix_vs_vix vvix_z63curva curva_d5 irx_dif_5d tnx_d1 tnx_d21 tnx_d5 tnx_z63rut_1d rut_21d rut_5d rut_menos_sp21 rut_menos_sp5cobre_21d cobre_5d cobre_entre_oro_21d oro_5d oro_menos_sp_21dnas_menos_sp5 nasdaq_1d nasdaq_21d nasdaq_5dskew_idx_z6302Today's number
One figure, and what you need to read it properly.
Five weeks on, that lead is 5.1 points. Over the past month the value portfolio gained +5.22% while momentum lost -2.64%.
This is not a market anomaly, it is a rotation inside one: the S&P 500 rose through both months.
Computed from carteras.json · 59 monthly rebalances between 9-Sep-2021 and 20-Jul-2026 · 53 overlapping windows of 6 rebalances.
03What the executives did
SEC Form 4, session of August 12, 2026. 5 sales, 9.1 million dollars.
The biggest sale of the day tells you nothing. Lorne Simon M, of Teledyne Technologies, sold 4.4 million dollars of stock and still holds 55,783 shares: that is 10.36% of the position.
Of the 5 sales filed that day, 3 were discretionary and 2 scheduled. And here is the finding: the 1 largest sales as a share of holding were all discretionary.
| Company | Insider | % of holding | Value | Left |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steris Plc Sohi Mohsen | Consejero | 14.3% | 0.96 M$ | 24,305 sh. |
| Qualcomm Inc/De Palkhiwala Akash J. | EVP, CFO & COO | 10.8% | 0.41 M$ | 20,684 sh. |
| Teledyne Technologies Lorne Simon M | Consejero | 10.4% | 4.39 M$ | 55,783 sh. |
| Merck & Co. Deluca Richard R. | EVP&Pres, Merck Animal Heallth | 9.6% | 1.54 M$ | 110,167 sh. |
| Hershey Hershey Trust Co Trustee In Trust For Milton Hershey School | Accionista >10% | 0.9% | 1.83 M$ | 1,065,749 sh. |
| Teledyne Technologies Lorne Simon M · largest of the day by dollar value | Consejero | 10.4% | 4.39 M$ | 55,783 sh. |
Source: Form 4 filings with the SEC · alertas_insiders.json, session of 12-Aug-2026.
The 90-day context: 433 sales worth 2,325 million dollars, of which only 198 were discretionary, and of those 65 exceeded 25% of the seller's position. That is where to look.
Before drawing conclusions
Executives sell for divorces, mortgages, taxes and school fees, not only because they see clouds. The SEC does not require a reason, and we do not know it.
What we do know is that these people chose the timing. It is a map of where to look. It is not a sell signal.
04The three portfolios that can actually be audited
Rebuilt month by month using only what was known on the day.
| Portfolio | Cumulative | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | This year | Last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value 100Earnings, book and sales yield | +141.7% | 19.55% | 0.97 | -18.25% | +17.72% | +5.22% |
| Momentum 10012m return ex-latest month / volatility | +139.0% | 19.28% | 0.94 | -20.57% | +25.70% | -2.64% |
| Quality 100Balance-sheet and earnings quality | +67.7% | 11.02% | 0.50 | -25.05% | +8.94% | +2.07% |
| Universe average synthetic benchmark, carries survivorship bias | +84.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
Quality has spent five years failing to live up to its name: +67.7% against the benchmark's +84.9%, with a deeper maximum drawdown. Its alpha is negative (-1.99%). Publishing that is the only reason the other two figures deserve any credit.
That benchmark is not the S&P 500
The +84.9% in the row above is not an index you can buy: it is the equal-weighted average of the universe companies whose prices we still hold, so the ones that left the index dropped out along the way and the figure is inflated by survivorship bias.
Over this same window the two ETFs that actually trade returned +48.9% (RSP, the equal-weighted S&P 500) and +76.9% (SPY, the plain S&P 500). Do not line them up against the three rows above to decide who wins: the portfolios carry the same bias as the synthetic benchmark and the ETFs do not, so that comparison flatters the portfolios. They are here for one thing only, which is to show how far the +84.9% overshoots.
Source: carteras.json · index based at 100 on 9-Sep-2021. Walk-forward with point-in-time data: on each date scoring uses only prices up to that day and fundamentals already filed with the SEC. 59 rebalances through 20-Jul-2026.
The site's other five portfolios are not here. They are not picked by factor ranking, so their history cannot be rebuilt without looking ahead: their figures are today's holdings applied to the past, which inflates them. Until they have a walk-forward test, they stay out of this report.
05Today's question
Is momentum's lead running out, or just catching its breath?
Source: carteras.json · index based at 100 on 9-Sep-2021. Walk-forward with point-in-time data: on each date scoring uses only prices up to that day and fundamentals already filed with the SEC. 59 rebalances through 20-Jul-2026.
The three windows where momentum pulled furthest ahead of value are +18.4 (17-Jun-2026), +14.4 (13-Mar-2024), +13.9 (12-Jun-2024). The first is two months old: we have just lived through the extreme of the series.
At the other end, the three where value led: -16.1 (10-May-2022), -14.4 (10-Mar-2022), -14.1 (9-Jun-2022). The extremes of this series have been followed by turns. Five years is enough to see that twice.
Why this is not a forecast
53 overlapping windows are not 53 independent observations: each shares five of its six months with the next. With that overlap, any series looks mean-reverting whether it is or not.
What this chart supports is descriptive: the lead went from 18.4 to 5.1 points, and last month value gained while momentum lost. What happens next month is not in this data.
06The close, in four lines
Context, not headline.
Closing quotes for the session of 7-Aug-2026 · blog_articles.json.
All three indices rose and volatility stays compressed. None of that explains why value beat momentum over the same stretch, which is why it sits in section five rather than section one.
07The limits, and what they teach
A fixed section. Knowing where a model stops is worth as much as knowing what it gets right.
- Why each executive sold. The SEC requires the filing, not the motive. Anyone who tells you the motive is making it up.
- What insiders did yesterday. Form 4 can be filed up to two business days after the trade, so the freshest data is always the day before last.
- Whether value keeps winning. Five years and 59 rebalances are not enough to claim a factor mean-reverts. We can describe what happened, not what comes.
- What any company is worth. This report computes no price targets. No Monte Carlo, no DCF, no fair value. When you see one elsewhere, ask which cost of capital discounted it and who chose that number.
- Whether the S&P rises tomorrow. We measured it with 142 variables and six years of history: the model is right 54.3% of the time and saying "up" every single day is right 54.1%. There is no signal, so we don't sell one.
Next: What the S&P 500 is · today's ranking · all the guides.
This is not investment advice. Quant500 publishes data and its historical reconstruction. No figure here is a suggestion to buy or sell, nor does it account for your personal situation.
Report generated automatically on August 13, 2026 from the server's data files. Each section states its own cut-off date, which is not always today.
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